Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 258.246222 315.834863 387.645008 485.424876 617.755926 7.946806e+02 1.056406e+03
2025-07-27 197.127448 264.676778 360.432899 511.888006 757.343967 1.163848e+03 1.949907e+03
2025-08-03 161.290761 230.521011 337.720256 526.844253 879.631709 1.580214e+03 3.327495e+03
2025-08-10 136.265698 203.871703 315.702964 530.554188 980.530650 2.029732e+03 5.391870e+03
2025-08-17 116.317629 180.071784 290.949493 518.691858 1043.118952 2.449602e+03 8.193922e+03
2025-08-24 101.029804 160.766423 268.992396 504.092648 1091.988537 2.885065e+03 1.226098e+04
2025-08-31 88.981710 144.864405 249.641449 488.454427 1130.895218 3.340021e+03 1.826201e+04
2025-09-07 85.415068 143.549400 257.947304 537.441980 1376.446423 4.871788e+03 4.288095e+04
2025-09-14 78.570788 134.889513 249.408228 543.043837 1497.220964 6.110284e+03 8.445048e+04
2025-09-21 73.849614 129.602577 246.913142 563.586279 1686.591132 8.156196e+03 2.190562e+05
2025-09-28 68.131542 121.491425 236.613552 559.548704 1784.560788 9.937191e+03 5.423762e+05
2025-10-05 66.791321 122.160647 246.515995 618.029828 2198.533459 1.593569e+04 7.180059e+06
2025-10-12 64.672685 121.120166 252.804084 671.005082 2670.291029 2.624390e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 61.992351 118.489145 254.713390 711.549083 3146.811475 4.280179e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 58.829083 114.325750 251.825698 734.544503 3565.581120 6.714503e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 55.379065 109.051940 244.962395 740.260765 3889.369169 1.000556e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 51.525091 102.381213 233.099272 722.014402 4015.448117 1.324435e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 47.958261 96.021654 221.138002 699.634372 4090.211219 1.712316e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 44.719762 90.129705 209.649570 675.756877 4131.534716 2.182454e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 44.452353 91.446498 219.484615 750.881859 5329.101282 7.257775e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 42.472730 88.276732 215.271462 759.533068 5845.106839 1.569333e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 41.159860 86.654979 215.598097 791.361265 6783.776308 6.236077e+06 NaN
2025-12-21 39.146108 83.026334 208.982757 785.092743 7186.360774 1.955278e+07 NaN